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Oct 9, 2012
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in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that poll in iowa shows a gain for mr. obama, a 5-point gain. in florida, the same poll shows a 4-point swing for romney. he's up by 2 points. so the major fall or minor lift, however, you rattle the number lose, as the overall national polling shifts and the swing state races shift with them, the state where the romney campaign is hoping for the biggest shift of all is in ohio. in modern political history, ohio has been the path to the presidency for republican candidates. if republican candidates win ohio, they win the white house. if mitt romney doesn't win ohio,
in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that...
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Oct 11, 2012
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there's also rasmussen poll that has romney three hey, 47-44. >> a lot of these polls where you see the president with, like, a five- or six-point lead, you go into the internals and you see they've been over-sampling democrats by, like, nine, or even, 10 or even 13 points. >> actually, greg, there was a brand new national bloomberg poll released today showing governor romney leading president obama on the issue of terrorism by six point. >> jon: how the hell are these polls so divergent, useless, accurate, yet quotable? i think we all know what we need? nerds! >> when you see obamaing gaining in today's poll, that means obama's interviews yesterday were better than seven days ago conducted before the debate. he went from three ahead in the seven-day track yesterday to five ahead in the track today. the next round of swing state polls shows the swing states tied, then democrats really will-- it will be appropriate for them to panic. ( laughter ) ( applause ) >> jon: nobody understands these things but those guys. and they're not telling us anything. is there anything that can help us ge
there's also rasmussen poll that has romney three hey, 47-44. >> a lot of these polls where you see the president with, like, a five- or six-point lead, you go into the internals and you see they've been over-sampling democrats by, like, nine, or even, 10 or even 13 points. >> actually, greg, there was a brand new national bloomberg poll released today showing governor romney leading president obama on the issue of terrorism by six point. >> jon: how the hell are these polls...
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Oct 9, 2012
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the poll in the free press and the pew poll not the only good news for the romney forces. they got a big boost as well in gallup's tracking poll which shows a 47-47 tie among likely voters contacted on the 4th through the 6th. in pre-debate polling, mr. obama, president obama, led by five. now, as for today's pew poll, the obama campaign takes issue with the party make-up of people surveyed, saying it tilts republican compared to september. the romney campaign, on the other hand, says it's pleased with the numbers. joining us now, jim acosta with the romney campaign in newport news, virginia and on the phone, dan lothian with president obama's campaign. jim, you're on the trail with the romney campaign. what's the reaction to the latest polling, because republicans were complaining about these polls as soon as last week. now the poll is good news for them. are they complaining? >> well, anderson, i have to tell you i just saw mitt romney standing out in a drenching rain in newport news just a couple hours ago and he still had a smile on his face. they're pretty happy. they
the poll in the free press and the pew poll not the only good news for the romney forces. they got a big boost as well in gallup's tracking poll which shows a 47-47 tie among likely voters contacted on the 4th through the 6th. in pre-debate polling, mr. obama, president obama, led by five. now, as for today's pew poll, the obama campaign takes issue with the party make-up of people surveyed, saying it tilts republican compared to september. the romney campaign, on the other hand, says it's...
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Oct 9, 2012
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let me ask you about the latest polls because the pew poll now shows mitt romney ahead for the first time. these things could bounce around a little bit but certainly shows he has gained some advantage after that debate. >> well, i thought there was an interesting column by a fellow named nate silver 538 in "the new york times" plot s out how the elections have gone in the past. almost always when an incumbent president in the debate and a challenger does well which almost always happens the challenger goes up for a while in the polls but then goes back down. he think it would have much effect on the election and i tend to agree with him. >> that is if the candidate, if the president of the united states, comes back with a different game plan. what do you think he needs to do in the next debate he didn't do in the first debate? >> well, the bottom line is, i think that he is a fighter. i think he will come to the conclusion that he let romney get away with a little too much trying to be very presidential, and i don't think you'll see the same thing in the next debate. >> let's talk a
let me ask you about the latest polls because the pew poll now shows mitt romney ahead for the first time. these things could bounce around a little bit but certainly shows he has gained some advantage after that debate. >> well, i thought there was an interesting column by a fellow named nate silver 538 in "the new york times" plot s out how the elections have gone in the past. almost always when an incumbent president in the debate and a challenger does well which almost...
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Oct 11, 2012
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cnn poll has it at four. clearly, still a lot of work for romney. let's keep going. virginia, we saw polls before the first presidential debate starting to stretch outside the margin. back to a dead heat. that's nbc news "wall street journal" mars poll and down to florida and here's another one. it started to open up a handful. there is no question, no question, the race changed after the the first presidential debate. romney got a bounce. but when you get a bounce, the challenge is to sustain it. that's the big challenge. can paul ryan keep the republican momentum? >> so, it's narrowed in these battleground state, but is there any indication that first debate created new battleground states? >> some evidence. i'm a bit skeptical. but one state where the numbers changed, mitt romney's birth state of michigan. his dad was governor there. our cnn poll had it close to ten points. looked like no way the republicans could put that into play. three points. so that's within the margin of error. that sheds michigan back into play. do the democrats now think we have to spend
cnn poll has it at four. clearly, still a lot of work for romney. let's keep going. virginia, we saw polls before the first presidential debate starting to stretch outside the margin. back to a dead heat. that's nbc news "wall street journal" mars poll and down to florida and here's another one. it started to open up a handful. there is no question, no question, the race changed after the the first presidential debate. romney got a bounce. but when you get a bounce, the challenge is...
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Oct 10, 2012
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romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack obama with an edge of 4 points in ohio, which is just outside the margin of error. it's far less than the 9-point leads in the survey not long ago. i should say to democrats and obama supporters, i'm sorry if i unleashed those numbers on you with a mature content warning label. but my friend e.j. dionne will be with us later. he says, i was talking with an old friend who was one of the nonpartisan polling outfits. we were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other
romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack...
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. >> over a windfall of new polling. >> we're seeing polls all over the place. >> mitt romney got a debate bounce. >> we cannot turn back now. >> the narrative about who's up, who's down in this race for the white house. >> it's a race that is anything but settled. >> there will be plenty of ups and downs over the next 28 days. >> just 28 days until election. >> are you in? are you ready for this? 28 days. are you with me? >>> tonight with 28 days until the presidential election, the head of the evolution-denying party got this question about evolution. >> that 47% comment that you made that's caused you a lot of grieve as you know. there's been a change in wrur position. you were initially saying when that tape came out that you weren't exactly elegantly stating your position. later and more recently you said you were completely wrong. i'm curious, governor, how did that evolution in your thinking go on from the initial reaction once that tape came out to what you said the other day that you were completely wrong? >> well, what i'm saying is that -- the words that came out were not what i
. >> over a windfall of new polling. >> we're seeing polls all over the place. >> mitt romney got a debate bounce. >> we cannot turn back now. >> the narrative about who's up, who's down in this race for the white house. >> it's a race that is anything but settled. >> there will be plenty of ups and downs over the next 28 days. >> just 28 days until election. >> are you in? are you ready for this? 28 days. are you with me? >>>...
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Oct 10, 2012
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the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the president's performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the candidate's chances at 538, your now cast factors in not just polling but also economic data and other measures that you think give you a percentage chance that one of the two candidates will win the election. what's the percentage chance you have for each of the candidates and has that changed less than the national polls changed? >> the percentage is a 70/30 advantage for obama. which, by the way, if you go to vegas or offshore versions of vegas, you can bet at about those odds. obama is a 70% favorite. but my site had obama as an 85% favorite before the debate
the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the president's performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill...
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Oct 10, 2012
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together, and 73% of the people in the battleground poll -- well, this was the gallop poll this morning, 73% of the people who watched the debate thought that mitt romney won. [applause] how about this? how about 63% of the democrats who watched the debate thought that romney won. [applause] listen, i'm just a regular guy with a big job. a lot of you don't know, but i have 11 brothers and sisters, and my dad owned a bar, all right? i'm the last guy in the world who wanted to be a member of the congress, much less a speaker, but i, like all of you, grew up in america, a country where you can grow up and be anything you want to be and do anything you want to do. i was lucky enough to work through school, got into a small business and buy it and grow it into a successful business. along the way, i got involved in the neighborhood's homeowner's association and i ended up as speaker of the house. this, too, could happen to you. [laughter] i got involved because i thought time for people from the real world to take an active interest in the government. when i went there as a small business pe
together, and 73% of the people in the battleground poll -- well, this was the gallop poll this morning, 73% of the people who watched the debate thought that mitt romney won. [applause] how about this? how about 63% of the democrats who watched the debate thought that romney won. [applause] listen, i'm just a regular guy with a big job. a lot of you don't know, but i have 11 brothers and sisters, and my dad owned a bar, all right? i'm the last guy in the world who wanted to be a member of the...
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Oct 12, 2012
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. >> the poll numbers for romney and ryan soaring after the first presidential debate. democrats openly counting on joe biden tonight to stop that republican momentum. >> osama bin laden is dead and general motors is arrive. >> the 2012 vice presidential debate starts right now. >>> happy debate night, everybody. the best television series of 2011 was the republican primary debates. there were 1 million of them. they played to huge audiences week after week and never disappointed. now it is october 2012 and the most compelling thing on television anywhere in the country is once again the debates. only now there are only two candidates at a time and the stakes are way higher. i'm rachel maddow. here on our msnbc headquarters in new york. i'm joined by ed schultz, reverend al sharpton, chris hayes, steve schmidt. lawrence o'donnell is our man in the spin room tonight. the one and only chris matthews is at centre college in danville, kentucky, the site of tonight's debate. chris, is this unusually high stakes for a vice presidential debate? >> well, it's great being with y
. >> the poll numbers for romney and ryan soaring after the first presidential debate. democrats openly counting on joe biden tonight to stop that republican momentum. >> osama bin laden is dead and general motors is arrive. >> the 2012 vice presidential debate starts right now. >>> happy debate night, everybody. the best television series of 2011 was the republican primary debates. there were 1 million of them. they played to huge audiences week after week and never...
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Oct 15, 2012
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i was impressed that the first romney debate caused a major swing in the polls. >> that is a great question. i have a fairly different opinions than most of my colleagues in this town. i do think that it is somewhat locked in.you ask people who they will vote for. that is a complicated question. you are on the phone answering somebody's question. some people want to please people and others want to not these people. there are varying degrees of people actually dialing in and paying attention. my own feeling is that is a very difficult time for any incumbent with unemployment reaching 10% and all the troubles any incumbent would have defending best. president obama is going into a very tough headwind. people dial in at a later and later date. a poll will tell you it is neck and neck. pollsters make money if things are neck and neck. people like me stay employed. a lot of those people happen to dial in at that moment. when they do that, they make up their mind. larget think there is a group of super intelligent independent voters that are paying attention to what is going on and saying, i sti
i was impressed that the first romney debate caused a major swing in the polls. >> that is a great question. i have a fairly different opinions than most of my colleagues in this town. i do think that it is somewhat locked in.you ask people who they will vote for. that is a complicated question. you are on the phone answering somebody's question. some people want to please people and others want to not these people. there are varying degrees of people actually dialing in and paying...
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Oct 8, 2012
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polls show there is an opening for him there. obama leads by about five points when it comes to the trust would comes to international affairs. clearly, the romney campaign knows there is an area for him to make some headway there. there is always the risk that by focusing -- it's a couple of days before the vice presidential debate, there still maintaining the economy is the top issue, he runs the risk of focusing on too many areas rather than keeping that single- minded focus on jobs and economic issues. >> you talked about the vice- presidential debate coming up. there is also a foreign policy debate coming up on october 22. is this a preview for that debate and does that open the play book for the obama camp to see what mayor romney is going to talk about at that foreign policy debate? >> -- what mitt romney is going to talk about. >> i think we have heard many of these arguments before, after , governorattacke romney came out and made these points pretty forcefully. from what we have seen, today's speech is going to be a may
polls show there is an opening for him there. obama leads by about five points when it comes to the trust would comes to international affairs. clearly, the romney campaign knows there is an area for him to make some headway there. there is always the risk that by focusing -- it's a couple of days before the vice presidential debate, there still maintaining the economy is the top issue, he runs the risk of focusing on too many areas rather than keeping that single- minded focus on jobs and...
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romney was getting hammered in the polls. keeping them honest though, disputing or downplaying the obvious, that's what campaigns do on both sides. >> it's not going to be about the polls. >> i wouldn't put a lot of weight in any of these national polls for the next couple days. >> in terms of mitt romney surging, just remember how much of a deficit he had to make up. he was in some cases double digits behind the president in all those attributes. >> pull back the reins. >> the media is focusing on one poll. >> that's reaction to the recent batch of polling, including that devastating pew poll that showed a four point romney lead. now consider that pew took an earlier poll in september a couple weeks before the debate, it was the republicans going ballistic when it showed romney eight points down. watch. >> these polls are basically just part and parcel of the campaign for barack obama to help him stay in this game as long as possible. >> if you believe what the polls are saying right now, you've got to believe that there's s
romney was getting hammered in the polls. keeping them honest though, disputing or downplaying the obvious, that's what campaigns do on both sides. >> it's not going to be about the polls. >> i wouldn't put a lot of weight in any of these national polls for the next couple days. >> in terms of mitt romney surging, just remember how much of a deficit he had to make up. he was in some cases double digits behind the president in all those attributes. >> pull back the reins....
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Oct 7, 2012
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reminds them of -- >> if you look at the day by day poll, and you look at the post debate numbers, each category, whether going from immigration to medicare, whatever, shows that obama has slipped in each category. iraq, which will not even mentioned, we see running moving up in favorability. >> all because of the debate? >> these races do tend to tighten at the end, unless it is a total landslide. let me finish, guys. i really do think, to the great plea to all of us, this will be a down to the wire race. wille very close. >> see you next week.
reminds them of -- >> if you look at the day by day poll, and you look at the post debate numbers, each category, whether going from immigration to medicare, whatever, shows that obama has slipped in each category. iraq, which will not even mentioned, we see running moving up in favorability. >> all because of the debate? >> these races do tend to tighten at the end, unless it is a total landslide. let me finish, guys. i really do think, to the great plea to all of us, this...
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and this amazing surge in the poll for romney. pugh, gallup, you name it, they are saying nothing but nice things about governor romney. what is your reaction? >> my reaction is president obama better do more than just make a few jokes at a fund-raiser out in los angeles. lou: was that a joke? >> she did say he was having an off night and not a stellar performance. lou: let's share this self-deprecating humor. i'm going to call everybody's caught the president's laughing and used face as he says this. see how much fun you thought the president was having as he made this self-deprecating joke. >> everybody here is an incredible professional, such great friends. they just performed flawlessly night after night. i can always say the same. [laughter] lou: did you see him cracking up? he can barely control himself. >> his idea of settles humor. i mean, what can he do? lou: the great one is so new ones that we cannot detected. >> at least he acknowledged that he has a problem. lou: what do you think? >> well, his surrogates are out ther
and this amazing surge in the poll for romney. pugh, gallup, you name it, they are saying nothing but nice things about governor romney. what is your reaction? >> my reaction is president obama better do more than just make a few jokes at a fund-raiser out in los angeles. lou: was that a joke? >> she did say he was having an off night and not a stellar performance. lou: let's share this self-deprecating humor. i'm going to call everybody's caught the president's laughing and used...